MODELLING AND SIMULATION OF THE SPREAD OF HBV DISEASE WITH INFECTIOUS LATENT

BACKGROUND OF STUDY: The spread of the HBV in Nigeria has posed a lot of threat to health and well being citizens in Nigeria. It is evident that about a third of the world’s population, approximately 2 billion people gets infected with hepatitis B virus in their life time. About 360 million people remain chronically infected carriers of the disease, most of whom are unaware of their HBV status and about 20% - 30% of whom will eventually die from chronic sequel. The prevalence of HBV infection varies from country to country, depending upon a complex behavioral, environmental and host factors. Chronic HBV can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma after 20 years among persons with chronic HBV infection; the risk for premature death from cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma is 15% - 25%.

Hepatitis B is a disease that is characterized by inflammation of the liver and is caused by infection by the hepatitis B virus. According to (WHO, 2002) stated that hepatitis may be caused by drugs or viral agents; these viral agents include the hepatitis A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H viruses. Hepatitis B is one of the world’s most serious health problems. More than a billion people around the world have serological indicators of past or present infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV).

According to (White and Fenner (1994), Platkov et al (2001), Carriapa et al (2004), Fernandez et al (2006), Onuzulike and Ogueri (2007)) in their research stated that Over 300 million people are chronic carriers of the virus. The fast spread of HBV shows that is very communicable.

It is evident according to (WHO, 2002) that HBV infection can be transmitted from mother to child (vertical), contact with an infected person (horizontal transmission), sexual contact (homosexual and heterosexual transmission) with infected partners, exposure to blood or other infected fluids and contact with HBV contaminated instruments

HBV control measures include vaccination, education, screening of blood and blood products; and treatment (CDC, 2005).

According to (Anderson and May, 1991) stated that epidemiological models help to capture infection or disease transmission mechanisms in a population in a mathematical frame-work in order to predict the behavior of the disease spread through the population.